Opinion: Who will win at The Masters?

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The first week of April always tends to shine the media spotlight on an individual. Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, even Bubba has had the “can he *really* do it again?” treatment. Typically, we’ve seen that most of all with Tiger Woods – whether he will add to his majors tally, whether he can rediscover his form, and (most recently) whether he will be playing at all. The closest we’ve had this year is Rory who announced his intention to not participate in the par-3 competition in order to take the main event more seriously.

But in truth, the media aren’t really sure who to focus on this year. The hype of this year’s Masters Tournament is just how close it’s shaping up to be. The “big three” have started the year convincingly… but so have a number of other household names. In fact, we’ve already seen six major-winners find victory in 2016 on the PGA Tour alone – four of those being former Masters winners.

So with so many big names in contention, how can we possibly predict who’ll be donning a green jacket on Sunday? Well, after a quick look at the numbers, I’m going to stick my neck out and have a go. Looking over previous years shows us a few (albeit quite obvious) things about former winners. There is a relationship between Masters performance and…

-          Official World Golf Ranking (this century, only two winners have been outside the top-30)

-          Average finishes that calendar year

-          Previous Masters performance (it’s the same course every year, after all!)

-          Strokes-gained: Total

-          PUTTING

-          Form

Nothing too surprising – but let’s see where this takes us. Let’s start with the top 30 golfers in the OWGR (replacing the injured Jim Furyk with Marc Leishman). If we tally up all of their finishes, we find that 17 of these golfers have averaged T25 finishes or better in 2016. Henrik Stenson actually top that list with an insane average of T9.

Of these 17 golfers, only 13 had finished T10 or better over their previous five appearances.  According to the official PGA Tour website, 8 of these are in the top-10 for “Strokes Gained: Average”. Undeniably, the most important part of a golfer’s game, as far as Augusta National is concerned, is putting. Of the 8 remaining golfers, only 5 are in the top-50 for “Strokes Gained: Putting”. This leaves us in the company of… Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson.

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So who has the best form coming into this week? Let’s have a look…

Jordan Spieth (T13, T9, T18) --- Av. Finish = 13.3

Rickie Fowler (T10, T38, T8) --- Av. Finish = 18.7

Adam Scott (T28, T12, 1) --- Av. Finish = 13.7

Dustin Johnson (3, T5, T14) --- Av. Finish = 7.3

Phil Mickelson (T13, T18, 5) --- Av. Finish = 12

That’s right, Dustin Johnson comes out on top! I know that this just a bit of fun, but it’s a brave man who bets against DJ this week. There are many talented golfers who are hungry for a win this weekend, but (maybe apart from Rory), no one is hungrier than Dustin. He’s tidied up his putting, it’s a course that suits his game and, while other pros may be playing well, he’s on the crest of his wave.

Yes, Dustin for the green jacket is my prediction. Watch him miss the cut.

Who do you think will win The Masters?

With golf's biggest tournament just around the corner we asked some well known names in the world of golf who they were tipping to be wearing the green jacket at Augusta on Sunday night.

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Gary Player (3-time Masters winner): "I have no idea but fancy the chances of Day, McIlroy & Speith. At least another 20 like Oosthuizen, Grace & Schwartzel."

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Ewen Murray (Sky Sports Golf commentator): My outsider is Marc Leishman - he's underrated. My top tip is Rory. He's very close and a little agitated. Perfect heading to Augusta.

Photo: telegraph.co.uk

Robbie Fowler (former Liverpool and England striker, and keen golfer) : "I honestly haven't got a clue... Maybe Andy Sullivan or Danny Willett each way."

Photo: golfchannel.com

Kay Cockerill (Golf Channel commentator and former LPGA player): "If Day is healthy, why not make it 3 wins in a row? He's better prepared now mentally to win The Masters if in position."

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Paul Gow (PGA Professional Golfer and presenter of Fox Sports Golf Show): "I have backed Rory, but very open event. Day, Scotty massive chance. Loius sleeper."

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Shane O'Donoghue (golf host for Fox Sports): "It is Bubba Watson's to lose! If he is inspired, he could run away with it."

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Ryan Burr (Golf Channel presenter): "Bubba Watson. If he plays well he can't be beat there."

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Damon Hack (Golf Channel Morning Drive co-host): "Jason Day. I liked him in December and I like him now. At height of his power, I think he is the best in the world."

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Tripp Isenhour: (Former PGA/Web.com Tour player. Current Golf Channel commentator/analyst.): "Rory McIlroy is my favorite. Has been all year. Game is trending in the right direction. Solid play against Day last week."

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Neil McLeman (Daily Mirror golf correspondent): "If I had to pick 1 name: Bubba Watson. Because he wins every other year and is finding his Augusta form. But it is wide open."

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Alan Shipnuck (senior writer at Sports Illustrated magazine): "Jason Day. When the best player in the world is playing his best, how can you pick against him?"

Tweeter Alliss (parody Twitter account of the BBC golf commentator Peter Alliss): "Bubba, because I said so. Majestic."

The Masters - preview

The Masters Tournament

Augusta National Golf Club

Thursday Apr 7th - Sunday Apr 10th, 2016

by David Barwise

Photo: espn.go.com

The biggest, most significant Masters tournament in recent years.

That may sound like an overstatement, but it isn’t. Let me put it like this – the “Big Three” are as tightly matched as ever. We’ve seen Spieth take victory at the beginning of 2016. We’ve seen McIlroy best Day to rise to 2^nd in the world, only for the Australian to leap-frog both of them to go top.In fact, Day has two wins from his last two tournaments. But then again Jordan Spieth is the only one of the three to win The Masters, and he’s defending champion. And let us not forget that Rory already has FOUR majors to his name, and he could have been higher up the pecking order if he hadn’t been side-lined last year with injury.

Suffice to say that a win at (arguably) the biggest event of the year would set any of these three apart from the rest. We all know what a Masters win can do for one’s authority on the game – if you don’t, I turn your attention to Jordan Spieth’s 2015. A victory on Sunday (or even a cut missed on the Friday) could set the golfing landscape for the next 12 months.

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And that’s before we consider the fringe players. Okay, maybe that’s a bit of an unfair term for golfers of this standard, but Rickie Fowler and Dustin Johnson currently stand where Day and Spieth did at this point last season. Both players are overdue for a major, and the hunger is definitely there. Rickie has already found victory this season in Dubai, and Dustin came close last week. They both have the ability to shoot low at Augusta, so this may be their best shot at joining the majors club… and the “big four”.

Of course, some of the other fringe players are already in the majors club. Bubba, Adam Scott, Oosthuizen and Schwartzel all have global wins in 2016, all have great experiences at Augusta, all have been victorious here (apart from Oosthuizen, who finished 2^nd to Bubba in *that* playoff). All of these players will expect to be in contention and show their resurgence to the world.

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It’s the biggest tournament of the year so far, so of course it’s easy to claim that every big name is going to perform and challenge for a green jacket this year. But obviously, that’s not going to happen. So who am I not expecting to win? Easy. Henrik Stenson. I know that may seem strange considering he’s 6^th in world and on great form (a quick form-calculation shows that his average finish this season is 9^th – the only player in the world’s top 30 to crack an average in the top 10). But the fact is that he just isn’t finishing his tournaments off at the moment with the nerves getting the best of his putting. You can sometimes get away with being a shade uncertain with the putter at other golf courses, but not at Augusta National. Also, for a former world no. 2, his record at the Masters nowhere near as strong as his other major appearances (he has never broken into the top 10).

Another absentee at the top of the leaderboard – I’m predicting – will be Patrick Reed. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of the way that he’s playing, but I don’t quite feel that he’s mature enough to win just yet. Sure he has the determination to win you can see that with every swing of the club, but can he handle the sport’s biggest stage? Not quite. He’s played the Masters only twice so far and, unless if you’re Jordan Spieth (1, T2) I wouldn’t want to back anyone who has to battle the biggest names this week with so little experience. Remembering, on top of this, the controversial WD he had at the Farmers Insurance Open because of bad weather, he still has a little growing up to do before he’s in the mind-set of a major winner. Please, prove me wrong.

As always, the Masters is one of the most hotly-anticipated sporting events on the calendar. But whoever is able to cut through the pressure, media attention and mountainous greens, can carve their way into history.